Globally blue carbon ecosystems (BCEs) – including mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses – have, shockingly, halved since the 1940s [1],[2], and are thought to still be shrinking at a rate of 0.13–1.5% per year [3],[4],[5]. This net loss of up to 210 square kilometres a year is double the loss rate of tropical forests, weakening coastal protection and jeopardizing nursery habitats2 that support a rich range of ecologically and economically important marine species. Of course, BCE degradation also contributes significantly to elevated carbon emissions, thus contributing to climate change.
In 2022, a new driver of positive change emerged from the global scientific community. The Convention on Biological Diversity adopted the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (known as KM-GBF), which contained a coherent set of actions to achieve near-zero loss, restoration and protection in biodiversity-critical ecosystems such as BCEs by 2030.
The KM-GBF set out to take a bold stand against this status quo, with the ultimate aim of reversing trends of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. This aspiration received a further boost in July 2024, with the publication of a new paper that translates the KM-GBF targets for BCEs into quantitative metrics and provides further granular actions to achieve these goals and quantify the associated climate benefits.
The paper was co-authored by Chuancheng Fu, Alexandra Steckbauer, Hugo Mann, and Carlos M Duarte. Professor Duarte – whose research showing mangroves, seagrasses and salt marshes to be globally relevant carbon sinks that underpinned his development of the concept of "blue carbon" as a nature-based solution to climate change – is also a Founding Co-Director of the Blue Institute, a new initiative headquartered in Seychelles. The Blue Institute aims to protect coastal and marine natural assets by converting them to financial capital and empowering communities to manage their long-term sustainability as effectively as possible. It was founded in [date] by Professor Duarte; His Excellency Nico Barito, the Seychelles Special Envoy to ASEAN countries; Ralph Chami, a leading natural capital economist and former leader at the International Monetary Fund; and three Directors of Blue Economy solutions company NLA International (Jonathan Turner, Nick Lambert and Andy Hamflett).
The latest KM-GBF paper by Professor Duarte and colleagues contains useful perspectives that underpin why the Blue Institute was established as a catalyst for action, especially the six core founding principles that will collectively guide activities:
By way of introduction to the Blue Institute, we shine a light on these principles here – within the framework of the KM-GBF paper, as well as bringing in further case studies of real-life action.
Science leads the way
First, science clearly spells out the size of the task ahead. Achieving the KM-GBF targets would, for example, contribute 2.8% of the reduction of carbon emissions needed to limit anthropogenic warming to 2°C by 2030. To achieve the KM-GBF targets, however, net BCE losses must be avoided: 76–126 km2 for saltmarsh; 187–190 km2 for mangrove; and 3,068–3,597 km2 for seagrass – annually from 2030 onwards. Avoiding losses alone will not be enough, however. An additional 10,467–17,296 km2 of saltmarsh, 23,693–24,369 km2 of mangrove and 90,601–106,215 km2 of seagrass must be restored.
To visualise the size of that task, that means that losses up to an area roughly equivalent to the size of Dubai must be avoided, and a further area approximately the size of Nepal – restored. This is obviously a challenging task. However, there has been a noticeable uptake in the promotion of carbon sequestration assets in recent years. Organisations such as the Great Barrier Reef Foundation are advertising for dedicated Blue Carbon managers; new research has been testing how the ocean can increase its capacity for carbon dioxide absorption; and countries such as Japan have been elevating awareness of – and actively investing in - blue carbon opportunities.
In the coming months, the Blue Institute will also be initiating a series of highly targeted interventions to help achieve such progress, all grounded in scientific understanding.
Finance will follow the science - redefining the asset class
The burning question, then, is: how? How will such vast swathes of marine estate be protected and restored? And who will pay for it? This is where innovative financial modelling will be critical to the future of the KM-GBF targets, the potential of the Blue Institute and, indeed, the future of the planet.
The KM-GBF paper highlights that the costs required to achieve the stated targets for BCEs far exceed the $200 billion per year that has been assigned to achieving the goals across all habitats and species. Clearly, transformative thinking is required.
As outlined in his recent article, Blue Institute Co-Founder and Director Ralph Chami has developed an approach that presents marine natural capital in a compelling new way to the private sector – as a revenue proposition aligned to the fight against climate change, and one which everyone can buy into. Assigning a transparent and evidence-backed dollar amount to the benefits of protecting and extending blue natural capital – from seagrass to whales – opens up transactional possibilities with the private sector. Increasingly, those who are compelled to purchase carbon credits to offset their emissions, or who voluntarily choose to do so, can now look beyond land and out to sea for such value propositions.
The Blue Institute is currently in the process of evaluating the natural capital in a targeted and sizeable area of Southeast Asian seaspace, and looks forward to bringing such an opportunity to an eager market.
Harnessing emerging technology
This emerging picture has the potential to enable many more exciting consequences, not least in the realm of innovation and emerging technology. The Blue Economy is hugely innovative, attracting a wide array of entrepreneurs looking to bring significant value with exciting new tools – from automated seagrass planters that offer significant scale-up opportunities for restoration practices – to the use of Artificial Intelligence to better understand mangroves’ role in climate change mitigation.
No matter how good the idea, though, barriers to entry in marine and maritime sectors – with limited profit margins or those starved of research funds – has often been challenging. With a new market impetus for marine natural capital in place, this picture could begin to improve.
The Blue Institute embraces new technology approaches, and will look to engage a variety of innovative providers, bringing cost effectiveness, radical transparency and accountability to the valuation of the natural assets. This could involve the use of satellite-enabled technology to map natural capital from space; harnessing open data to provide ‘radical transparency’ around the mapped assets; and to enable the protection and preservation of the quantified marine assets.
This approach is again echoed in the KM-GBF paper, which highlights where a broad spectrum of technological innovations can and should be used to help reach its stated goals – from risk assessments and assessments of climate damage to “cost-effective technologies to plan, execute and monitor restoration and conservation efforts.”
People power
There is always a lingering risk that the natural capital story remains rooted in the environmental and financial aspects only. However, meaningful engagement with coastal communities and other relevant stakeholders is critical to ensure an equitable and just transition.
For example, Professor Duarte and colleagues highlight the risk of not involving communities in BCE restoration projects, stating in their paper that: “communication channels should be built to enable communities to be involved with the design of a project from its inception and to claim land tenure rights to prevent land or ocean grabbing, where land or ocean is taken for restoration without the consent and compensation of the affected communities41”.
Successful natural capital projects offer huge promise to provide significant economic gains, stable and meaningful employment and enhanced wellbeing to relevant community stakeholders. The Blue Institute’s approach is rooted in community engagement and local wisdom. Sensitive and reflective engagement began with coastal communities within the emerging natural capital concession area before the organisation was even officially formed – to learn from and channel community feeling and to test appetite and willingness to move towards a new model of assessment and management. The Institute will always hold fast to such a commitment, and seek innovative ways to empower communities to be in control of the natural assets that have sustained generations of their families. They have the most to lose and therefore the most to gain.
The strategic framework
Such a commitment will also need to move far beyond simple statements of intent, looking instead to embed key approaches within robust structures of governance and strategy. The Blue Institute will therefore advocate that any projects initiated should be tackled within a holistic Blue Economy approach – smashing through silos and bringing transparency and strength to the complex set of relationships that make up any nation’s Blue Economy.
The KM-GBF paper rightly identifies that previous diversity targets have been missed due, in part, to the lack of effective National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). The broader scope of the Blue Economy provides an even greater challenge to identify and marry up a potentially dizzying array of policies, strategies and frameworks. However, this challenge should actually be seen as a major opportunity, as the governments (and their development bank partners) really tackling holistic sustainable Blue Economy implementation are taking serious steps to ensure that emerging roadmaps truly take into account all relevant policies, legislation and perspectives. Natural capital initiatives thus already have a train to which they can hitch their wagon.
Real, tangible benefits of the Blue Economy are beginning to emerge, as evidenced by the tremendous progress on display in Zanzibar over the past few years. President Hussein Ali Mwinyi has energetically championed the Blue Economy in Zanzibar, emphasising sustainable development, economic diversification, and the conservation of marine resources. This has seen significant financial returns for a range of Blue Economy sectors – such as remarkable improvement in fisheries output – but has all been tackled very much with a strong eye on the environmental sustainability of marine resources.
To ensure the greatest chance of long-term sustainability, the Blue Institute will always look to position its work within such a broader Blue Economy development framework. Furthermore, it will support such an approach wherever it can with the delivery of targeted and accessible capacity building to ensure everyone can play their part appropriately.
Partnership for progress
This previous point also brings into view the final of the Blue Institute’s core principles – that of partnership. The role of partnerships, aligned to the focus on capacity building, resonates in the KM-GBF paper, which states that: “The use of global partnerships to strengthen research capacities in less developed nations can facilitate mutual learning, understanding and the dissemination of findings, while also preventing ‘parachute science’ and a perpetual dependence on scientists and expertise from the global north.”
Again, the emergence of the Blue Economy, and its enthusiastic embrace by so many governments and agencies, provides ever-growing and increasingly strong communities of practice. Just recently, for example, a Blue Economy baseline was established in Mozambique, the result of “engaging over 50 stakeholders involved in Mozambique’s Blue Economy sector (Government, NGOs, development actors, private companies, independent experts)”.
The Blue Institute is committed to fruitful partnerships. Our recent Blue Economy event in Manado, Indonesia [link to CTI article when live on the website], underlines this commitment, devised and co-delivered as it was by fantastic prestigious partner bodies such as the Ministry of Marine Affair and Fisheries of the Republic of Indonesia, North Sulawesi Province, Manado City, the ASEAN Centre for Biodiversity and the Coral Triangle Initiative.
A principled approach
Science; converting nature to a new asset class; utilising the very best of emerging technology; meaningful community engagement; finding opportunities for additionality within existing and emerging Blue Economy frameworks; and doing all of this in partnership – these are the core principles of the Blue Institute that will help emerging projects to plug into and align with any number of complementary initiatives, including but not limited to the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
The Blue Institute is currently initiating a range of blue carbon and Blue Economy capacity building projects in various parts of the world. Please contact us if you would like to discuss potential collaboration.
You can also keep track of global developments in blue natural capital and the Blue Economy by following The Blue Institute page on LinkedIn.
[1] Duarte, C. M., Losada, I. J., Hendriks, I. E., Mazarrasa, I. & Marbà, N. The role of coastal plant communities for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Nat. Clim. Change 3,961–968 (2013).
[2] Serrano, O. et al. Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation. Nat. Commun. 10, 4313 (2019).
[3] Waycott, M. et al. Accelerating loss of seagrasses across the globe threatens coastal ecosystems. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 12377–12381 (2009).
[4] Goldberg, L., Lagomasino, D., Thomas, N. & Fatoyinbo, T. Global declines in human‐ driven mangrove loss. Glob. Chang. Biol. 26, 5844–5855 (2020).
[5] Campbell, A. D., Fatoyinbo, L., Goldberg, L. & Lagomasino, D. Global hotspots of salt marsh change and carbon emissions. Nature 612, 701–706 (2022).
